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Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Indicators. Strong U.S. home sales, low layoffs highlight economy's strength.

By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales hit their highest level in nearly 9-1/2 years in June as low interest rates lured first-time buyers into the market and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, underscoring the economy's strength.
Although another report on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region contracted this month, a surge in new orders and shipments suggested the setback was likely temporary.
"The economy is doing well and is weathering the global turbulence. With housing and consumers powering ahead, some of the clouds are dissipating and summer looks good from a data point of view," said Thomas Costerg, a U.S. economist at Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) Bank in New York.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales increased 1.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.57 million units last month, the highest level since February 2007.
It was the fourth straight month of increases and left sales 3 percent higher than a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales slipping to a 5.48 million-unit pace in June.
Sales were boosted by first-time buyers, whose share of transactions rose to 33 percent in June, the highest since July 2012. That compared to 30 percent in May and a year ago.
The increase in first-time buyers, whose participation is considered crucial for a strong housing market, came as U.S. mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since 2013 on bets the Federal Reserve would be cautious about raising interest rates.
Britain's vote on June 23 to leave the European Union has also put downward pressure on borrowing costs for home buyers as investors pile into safe-haven U.S. government debt.
The housing market is being supported by a strengthening labor market, but sales remain constrained by a persistent shortage of properties available for sale, which is keeping home prices elevated. There were 2.12 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 0.9 percent from June.
The median price for a previously owned house rose 4.8 percent from a year ago to a record $247,700 in June.
"We expect this buoyant performance to continue during the second half of this year, underpinned by strong employment growth, low mortgage rates and continued confidence in the economic recovery," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.
The broader PHLX housing index (HGX), including builders, building products and mortgage companies, was down 0.14 percent, tracking a slightly weak U.S. stocks market.
BUOYANT LABOR MARKET
The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, after the European Central Bank gave no hint that it was set on easing policy further in September to support growth. Prices for U.S. government bonds fell.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 for the week ended July 16, the lowest reading since April. Claims are near the 43-year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April.
Economists had forecast initial claims rising to 265,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 72 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 1,250 to 257,750 last week.
The claims data covered the survey week for July's nonfarm payrolls. The four-week average of claims fell 9,000 between the June and July periods, suggesting another month of strong job gains. The economy added a whopping 287,000 jobs in June, the largest this year.
"The claims data continue to signal very low layoffs and that the employment report for July will be solid," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. "These data point to a further tightening of the labor market in terms of readily employable underutilized labor."
Labor market strength is boosting consumer spending and the housing market, which in turn are providing a lift to economic growth.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, the government is expected to report next week that the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, an acceleration from the 1.1 percent pace logged in the first three months of the year.
In a third report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business index fell to a reading of -2.9 this month from 4.7 in June. But the new orders component rose to 11.8 from -3.0 in June and shipments rebounded to 6.3 from -2.1 in June.
Manufacturing has been hurt by a strong dollar and sluggish global demand, which have undercut U.S. exports, as well as efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang. Lower oil prices have also weighed on manufacturing as energy firms cut back on capital spending in response to reduced profits.

Stock Markets. Wall Street falls on disappointing reports from Intel.

By Tanya Agrawal
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks dipped in early afternoon trading on Thursday, after staying flat for most of the morning, as disappointing earnings reports from Intel and others outweighed the handful of promising reports.
Intel (O:INTC) shares were down 4.3 percent at $34.14 after it reported slowing revenue growth at its key data center business.
The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P and Nasdaq. It also pulled the S&P technology index (SPLRCT) 0.5 percent lower.
Fellow chipmaker Qualcomm (O:QCOM) was the biggest positive influence on the S&P and Nasdaq, rising 7.4 percent after its results and forecast topped estimates.
Biogen (O:BIIB) was up 6.9 percent at $280.42 after strong results. The stock led the health sector (SPXHC) 0.35 percent higher, making it the only gainer among the 10 major S&P sectors.
Southwest Airlines (N:LUV) fell 8.7 percent and weighed on other airline stocks after it forecast a drop in a key profitability metric for the third quarter.
At 12:43 p.m. ET (1643 GMT) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down 80.61 points, or 0.43 percent, at 18,514.42.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was down 6.44 points, or 0.3 percent, at 2,166.58. The index had earlier come within a point of its previous record.
The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was down 10.24 points, or 0.2 percent, at 5,079.70.
"The recent rally has been more shallow and has been confined to a few sectors," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.
"Any pullback was to be expected given that the Dow rallied for nine straight days and you have to see today's action in that context. The broader macro context hasn't changed."
The S&P is up more than 6 percent for the year, while the Dow's nine-day winning streak is its best run since March 2013.
But the rally has been driven by defensive sectors such as telecoms and utilities amid concerns about global instability including Britain's recent vote to leave the European Union.
Even upbeat economic data did not influence the market. A report showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-month low last week, while home resales unexpectedly rose in June to their fastest pace in more than nine years.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,604 to 1,295. On the Nasdaq, 1,559 issues fell and 1,155 advanced.
The S&P 500 index showed 23 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 70 new highs and 14 new lows.

Stock Markets. U.S. stocks mixed and flat, Dow under pressure from earnings

Investing.com – Wall Street traded mixed and flat with the Dow Jones under earnings pressure as investors continued to digest the numbers from second-quarter earnings and data released Thursday with an eye looking ahead to next week’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
At 15:00GMT, or 11:00AM ET, the Dow 30 slipped 10 points, or 0.05%, the S&P 500 edged forward 1 point, or 0.04%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 5 points, or 0.10%.
As the second-quarter reporting season continues to roll on, the Dow was clearly pressured on Thursday with the top three decliners having disappointed investors.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) lead the losses on the blue-chip index after reporting slower revenue growth at its data center business.
American Express (NYSE:AXP) followed in the second worst slot after the credit card company reported mixed earnings.
The Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE:TRV) was under pressure after reporting a 19% slide in second quarter earnings.
Outside the Dow, not all the earnings news was negative with eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) notably surging more than 10% on a sharp rise in sales.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX) were also up more than 3% on their own earnings report.
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), AT&T (NYSE:T), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG),Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) were some of the names set to release numbers after the close.
U.S. equities have been boosted in recent sessions amid indications the U.S. corporate earnings season may be less dour than feared. According to Thomson Reuters, 67% of the 70 S&P 500 companies reporting so far beat earnings estimates.
Furthermore, second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are now expected to fall by 3.8%, less than the 4.7% decline estimated before the reporting season began, according to Thomson Reuters.
Amid the deluge of data released on Thursday, weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell,adding to hope for a continuation of improvements in the labor market at the beginning of the third quarter.
In other good news, existing home sales unexpectedly rose in June, bolstering optimism over the health of the housing market.
On the downside, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region registered a surprise deterioration in July, according to a report from the Philly Fed.
In other reports with less market impact, the Conference Board’s June index of leading economic indicators and the Chicago national activity index for the same month came out above forecasts, though the FHFA home price index for May rose less than expected.
In oil markets, crude turned lower on Thursday amid ongoing concerns over a global supply glut.
According to market experts, elevated stocks of fuel products amid slowing demand growth is expected to keep prices under pressure in the near-term.
U.S. crude futures fell 0.544% to $45.55 a barrel by 15:01GMT or 11:01AM ET, whileBrent oil lost 0.32% to $47.02.
In currency markets, the dollar was mostly flat against major rivals as markets continued to digest economic reports ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on July 27.
Financial markets had begun to see a minimal probability of a rate hike at the meeting with odds of just 2.4% on Thursday. Fed fund futures now see a higher likelihood of policy tightening in December with the odds at 51.5% for an increase at the end of the year.
USD/JPY went on a wild ride during Thursday’s session breaking below 106 on news thatBank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda had dismissed the possibility of using helicopter money. However, the pair pared losses as BBC clarified that the interview aired on Thursday was from the middle of June.
The euro had gained some strength on the back of the relatively positive outlook fromEuropean Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. The ECB held steady on monetary policy on Thursday.
However, EUR/USD moved back to levels seen before Draghi’s press conference and the initial monetary policy announcement.

Forex. Dollar index pares losses, re-approaches 4-month peak

Investing.com - The dollar pared losses against the other major currencies on Thursday, as strong U.S. housing sector data lent support and as upbeat remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to sustainably ease global growth concerns.
Data showed that U.S. existing home sales increased by 1.1% in June to 5.57 million units from the 5.51 million units in May that was revised from the initial read of 5.53 million. The consensus forecast was for a 0.5% decline to 5.48 million units.
The report came after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 16 fell by 1,000 to 253,000 from the previous week’s total of 254,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to increase by 11,000 to 265,000 last week.
Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index fell to -2.9 this month from June’s reading of 4.7. Analysts had expected the index to improve to 5.0 in July.
EUR/USD slipped 0.14% to trade at 1.0999, re-approaching Wednesday’s one-month low of 1.0979.
At the conclusion of its policy meeting, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.0%, in line with forecasts.
Commenting on the decision, ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro zone recovery faces several headwinds, and the risks remain tilted to the downside, citing the UK referendum, slowing emerging markets and the slow pace of structural reforms as key threats.
Darghi also said that European markets weathered the post-Brexit volatility with “encouraging resilience”, but reiterated that the central bank is ready to act by using all the instruments available under its mandate if necessary.
GBP/USD edged down 0.10% to 1.3191. The U.K. Office for National Statistics earlier said that retail sales dropped 0.9% in June, compared to expectations for a 0.6% fall. Year-on-year, retail sales increased by 4.3%.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, fell 0.9% last month, confounding expectations for a 0.6% decline.
However, a separate report on Thursday showed that U.K. public sector net borrowing fell to £7.31 billion in June from an upwardly revised total of £9.41 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected public sector net borrowing to hit £9.20 billion last month.
USD/JPY declined 0.67% to 106.16, off a seven-week high of 107.48 hit overnight, whileUSD/CHF added 0.16% to 0.9889.
The yen slightly recovered on Thursday, but remained under pressure amid mounting expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan in its monetary policy statement next week.
The Australian dollar remained higher, with AUD/USD up 0.31% at 0.7496, while NZD/USDdropped 0.58% to 0.6980 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that "further easing is likely", sparking expectations for a rate cut at its next policy meeting.
Elsewhere, USD/CAD eased 0.10% to trade at 1.3044.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 97.15, off session lows of 96.77 and re-approaching the previous session’s four-month high of 97.37.

Amazon enters student loan business in partnership with Wells Fargo

(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc (O:AMZN) is entering the student loan business in a partnership with Wells Fargo & Co (N:WFC), the companies announced Thursday.
The deal calls for Wells Fargo to shave half a percentage point from its interest rate on student loans to Amazon customers who pay for a "Prime Student" subscription, which provides benefits such as free two-day shipping and access to movies, television shows and photo storage.
Wells Fargo, the third largest U.S. bank by assets, is interested in "meeting our customers where they are – and increasingly that is in the digital space," John Rasmussen, head of Wells Fargo's Personal Lending Group, said in a news release.
Wells Fargo had $12.2 billion in student loans outstanding at the end of 2015, compared with $11.9 billion at the end of 2014. One of the largest private lenders, the bank sold substantially all of its government guaranteed student loan portfolio in 2014.
Representatives for Wells Fargo and Amazon had no immediate response to questions.

EBay's revenue exceeded expectations; the company has improved forecast

(Reuters) - Online retailer eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) reported a quarterly revenue exceeded expectations and improved its outlook for the current year, helped by the company's efforts to modernize its platform online trading.
Shares of eBay were up 8 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday, when the company's board of directors also approved the increase in the share buyback program to $ 2.5 billion.
The company, which in July last year separated service PayPal, is the main driver of growth, focused on small business products, while enhancing the range of products offered.
Gross sales, or the total amount of all goods sold through the company's websites increased by 4 percent to $ 20.9 billion in the second quarter, which ended June 30 due to good demand in the United States.
The number of active buyers on eBay rose by 4 percent to 164 million. EBay raised its forecast for the current fiscal year, expecting revenue of $ 8,85-8,95 billion, instead of the previously projected $ 8,6- $ 8.8 billion and adjusted earnings from continuing operations to be between $ 1,85- $ 1 90 per share, instead of $ 1,82- $ 1,87 per share. For the third quarter, the company expects revenue to be $ 2,16-2,19 billion and adjusted earnings will be in the range of 42-44 cents per share.
Interviewed by Reuters, analysts on average expected revenue of $ 2.14 billion and earnings of 44 cents per share.
 EBay net profit for the second quarter increased to $ 435 million, or 38 cents per share, from $ 83 million, or 7 cents per share, in the same quarter last year.
Excluding one-off balance sheet items, eBay earned 43 cents per share, 1 cent more than analysts expected. Revenue rose 5.7 percent to $ 2.23 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $ 2.17 billion.
 (Arunima Banerjee, Anna George Tharakan)

Half-year profits exceeded forecasts Roche due to good sales of drugs

BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - Swiss pharmaceutical producer Roche reported on the adjusted net income for the first six months of this year, which surpassed analysts' expectations due to strong sales of drugs Perjeta and Rituxan, as well as one-off income derived from the activities of the pension fund company.
Basic earnings per share, subject to adjustment of certain balance sheet items, increased by 7 percent to 7.74 Swiss francs ($ 7.86). Analysts on average had forecast a figure on the level of 7.52 francs.
Sales of the three well-established group of drugs for the treatment of cancer - Herceptin, Avastin and Rituxan, continued to grow.
 Annual sales of each of the bottom up over 6 billion francs a year. Nevertheless Roche is necessary to advance in the market its new drug because of the expected decline in sales of obsolete products in the next few years.
Sales of Rituxan, which was approved in Europe in 1998, rose in the second quarter by 5 percent in local currencies to 1.88 billion Swiss francs, exceeding analysts' expectations at 1.83 billion.
Sales of the new drug Perjeta, for the treatment of breast cancer jumped by 35 percent to 467 million against the average analyst forecast of 449 million.
 In the last quarter, the company also recorded a one-off gain of $ 426 million, resulting from the activities of its pension fund.
(Ludwig Burger)