Swiss Trade Balance 2.930B vs. 3.790B forecast

Economic Indicators

Switzerland’s trade balance fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Tuesday.

In a report, Federal Statistical Office said that Swiss Trade Balance fell to a seasonally adjusted 2.930B, from 3.510B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 3.510B.

Analysts had expected Swiss Trade Balance to rise to 3.790B last month.

Source by Investing.com

Mexican Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

Mexican GDP 2.4% vs. 2.4% forecast

Mexico’s gross domestic product fell in the last quarter, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, Insituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Geografia said that Mexican GDP fell to a seasonally adjusted 2.4%, from 2.6% in the preceding quarter.

Analysts had expected Mexican GDP to fall to 2.4% in the last quarter.

Mexican economic activity 2.20% vs. 1.85% forecast

Economic activity in Mexico remained unchanged unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia said that Mexican Economic Activity remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 2.20%, from 2.20% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Mexican Economic Activity to fall to 1.85% last month.

Source by Investing.com

German exports to Iran soar after removal of sanctions

Economic Indicators

German exports to Iran, mostly machines and equipment, jumped in the first half of the year following the removal of international sanctions against the Islamic Republic, official trade data showed on Monday.

Exports to Iran surged by 15 percent year-on-year in the first six months of 2016 to 1.13 billion euros ($1.3 billion), the Federal Statistics Office said.

This compares with a rise of 1.4 percent in overall German exports in the same period and a fall of 14 percent in German exports to Iran in 2015.

"There is a huge demand in Iran for plant and equipment", said Michael Tockuss, head of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce, adding that chemical products and electrical engineering were also doing well.

"And there is growing demand for technology from the renewable energy sector, mainly wind power stations," Tockuss said, adding that the reluctance of banks to finance bigger deals between German and Iranian businesses was slowly eroding.

Tockuss said exports to Iran would further pick up in the coming months and are expected to rise by as much as 25 percent in the whole of 2016 and by 30 percent in 2017.

"The sanctions against Iran were built up over several years and it now will take some years to reverse them and establish new business ties," he said.

In another positive sign, German exports to Russia fell only 3.5 percent to 10.1 billion euros in the January-June period after having plunged by 25 percent to 21 billion euros in 2015.

This indicates that the impact of international sanctions imposed against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine is bottoming out.

CLOUDED OUTLOOK

Overall trade prospects are more clouded, however.

German exports to the Unites States and France, its two most important markets, fell 4 percent to 53.4 billion euros and 2 percent to 52.1 billion euros respectively on the year in the first six months of 2016.

Exports to Britain, Germany's third-most important market, stagnated in the first half of the year at around 44.8 billion euros.

Demand from emerging markets was subdued, with German exports to China only inching up 1 percent to 36.3 billion euros, to Brazil falling 18 percent to 4.4 billion euros and to South Africa down 11 percent to 4.4 billion euros.

The head of Germany's BGA trade association has said exports will grow less than expected this year due to external risks, including Britain's vote to leave the European Union and uncertainties ahead of elections in the United States and France.

Anton Boerner said late in June that BGA would update its official forecast for export growth of 4.5 percent at the end of the summer and he expected 4.1 percent at best.

In 2015, German exports grew by 6.4 percent on the year, mainly driven by strong demand from other EU countries. This led to net foreign trade contributing 0.2 percentage points to an overall growth rate of 1.7 percent last year.

The German government expects the economy to grow by the same amount this year, helped by soaring domestic demand, while exports are unlikely to contribute much to overall growth.

($1 = 0.8857 euros)

Source by Reuters

U.S. inflation tame as economy gains momentum

Economic Indicators

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July on falling gasoline costs, but solid gains in industrial output and home building suggested a pickup in economic activity that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

Tuesday's mixed reports came as influential New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. central bank could hike rates next month, citing a tightening labor market that he said was starting to spur faster wage growth.

"The strong housing starts and industrial output performance will bolster the Fed confidence that growth momentum has rebounded, potentially supporting the bias for a near-term hike," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York. "Nevertheless, with inflation continuing to miss to the downside, the case for caution remains strong."

July's flat reading in the Consumer Price Index was the weakest since February and followed two straight monthly increases of 0.2 percent. In the 12 months through July, the CPI rose 0.8 percent after increasing 1.0 percent in June.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, edged up 0.1 percent in July. It had risen by 0.2 percent in each of the previous three months. The year-on-year core CPI increased 2.2 percent in July after advancing 2.3 percent in June.

The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which has been stuck at 1.6 percent since March. "It's possible" for the Fed to hike rates at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, Dudley told Fox Business Network.

In the wake of Dudley's remarks, financial markets were placing a 51.4 percent probability of a rate increase at the Fed's December policy meeting, up from 46.7 percent late on Monday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. A September rate hike has been virtually priced out.

The inflation data, however, pushed the dollar (DXY) lower against a basket of currencies. U.S. stocks and Treasuries fell on Dudley's comments. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

But with rents and healthcare costs continuing to rise, some economists do not expect July's moderation in underlying inflation to be sustained. Medical care costs climbed 0.5 percent last month, adding to June's 0.2 percent gain.

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT JUMPS

There were also increases in the costs of hospital services, doctor visits and prescription medicine. Rents increased a solid 0.3 percent. But Americans got some relief from gasoline prices, which dropped 4.7 percent last month, the first decline since February, reflecting renewed declines in crude oil prices.

The cost of food consumed at home fell for a third straight month, with prices for meat, eggs, dairy and cereals declining. Prices for new motor vehicles rose for the first time since February, while the cost of apparel was unchanged.

Despite benign inflation, economic growth is picking up after output averaged 1.0 percent in the first half of the year. In a separate report, the Fed said industrial production shot up 0.7 percent last month after rising 0.4 percent in June.

Production was boosted by a 0.5 percent jump in manufacturing output, the largest gain since July 2015. Warmer-than-usual weather boosted utilities production by 2.1 percent while mining output increased 0.7 percent.

"Overall, these factors suggest the outlook for the U.S. industrial sector has improved modestly and support our expectation of healthier economic growth in the second half of 2016," said Jesse Hurwitz, an economist at Barclays (LON:BARC) in New York.

In a third report, the Commerce Department said housing starts increased 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.2 million units in July, the highest level since February.

Last month's increase in groundbreaking activity supports the view that investment in residential construction will rebound after slumping in the second quarter for the first time in more than two years.

With the housing market on solid ground, home improvement retailers are also getting a boost. Home Depot Inc (N:HD) on Tuesday raised its full-year earnings forecast after reporting a 6.6 percent rise in quarterly sales.

Groundbreaking on single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, rose 0.5 percent to a 770,000-unit pace in July, also the highest level since February.

Housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment increased 5.0 percent to a 441,000-unit pace. Groundbreaking on multi-family housing projects with five units or more jumped to the highest level since September 2015.

The multi-family segment of the market continues to be supported by strong demand for rental accommodation as some Americans shun homeownership in the aftermath of the housing market collapse.

Source by Reuters

Indian WPI 3.55% vs. 2.55% forecast

Economic Indicators

India’s wholesale price index rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Tuesday.

In a report, Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry said that Indian WPI rose to 3.55%, from 1.62% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Indian WPI to rise to 2.55% last month.

Source by Investing.com

Empire State August manufacturing index contracts unexpectedly

Economic Indicators

The New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions unexpectedly contracted in August, underlining concerns over the health of the economy, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index fell to -4.2 this month from a reading of 0.55 in July. Analysts had expected the index to improve to 2.5 in August.

On the index, a reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.

The new orders index remained near zero, a sign that orders were little changed, while the shipments index climbed eight points to 9.0, indicating that shipments rose.

Labor market indicators pointed to little change in employment levels and hours worked.

The prices paid index edged down to 15.5, suggesting that input price increases remained moderate, and at 2.1, the prices received index reflected a minute increase in selling prices.

Forward-looking indicators suggested that firms expected conditions to improve over the next six months, although the level of optimism diminished for a second consecutive month.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it is seen as an early forecast of the national Institute for Supply management factory survey.

EUR/USD was trading at 1.1183 from around 1.1177 ahead of the release of the data,GBP/USD was at 1.2890 from 1.2886 earlier, while USD/JPY was at 101.02 from 101.10 earlier.

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was at 95.55, compared to 95.57 ahead of the report.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to a modestly higher open. The Dow futures pointed to an increase of 0.25%, the S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%.

Elsewhere, in the commodities market, gold futures traded at $1,345.65 a troy ounce, compared to $1,344.50 ahead of the data, while crude oil traded at $44.69 a barrel from $44.77 earlier.

Source by investing.com

Japan’s industrial production 2.3% vs. 1.9% forecast

Economic Indicators

Industrial production in Japan rose more-than-expected last month, data showed on Monday.

In a report, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that industrial production rose to a seasonally adjusted 2.3%, from 1.9% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected industrial production to rise 1.9% last month.

Source by Investing.com

U.S. business inventories rise marginally as sales jump

Economic Indicators

U.S. inventories rose moderately in June as sales recorded their biggest increase in nearly 3-1/2 years, suggesting businesses were making progress reducing an inventory overhang that has weighed on economic growth since last year.

The Commerce Department said on Friday inventories increased 0.2 percent after a similar gain in May. Sales shot up 1.2 percent in June, the largest rise since February 2013, after rising 0.3 percent in May.

At June's sales pace, it would take 1.39 months for businesses to clear shelves. That was the fewest number of months since November 2015 and down from 1.40 months in May.

Economists had forecast inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, edging up 0.1 percent in June after a previously reported 0.2 percent gain in May.

Retail inventories increased 0.5 percent in June, as estimated last month in an advance report. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.2 percent in June after a 0.3 percent gain in May.

An outright drop in inventory investment cut almost 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in the second quarter, limiting the rise in output to an anemic 1.2 percent annual rate. Inventories have been a drag on GDP growth since the second quarter of 2015.

Source by Reuters

U.S. retail sales were unchanged in July, missing expectations

Economic Indicators

Retail sales in the U.S. were flat in July with the core number registering an unexpected decline, raising concern about consumer spending being able to push economic growth at the beginning of the third quarter, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were flat from the prior month, compared to the forecast for a rise of 0.4%. June retail sales for increased 0.8%, whose figure was revised from an initial 0.6% gain.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, unexpectedly fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in July, compared to forecasts for an advance of 0.2%. Core sales in June gained 0.9%, upwardly revised from an initial 0.7% gain

Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

Source by Investing.com

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly decline in July

Economic Indicators

Producer price inflation in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in July, while core prices also registered a surprise drop, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, the Commerce Department said that producer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, worse than the forecast for a 0.1% advance and after a 0.5% gain in June.

Year-over-year, the producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased 0.2%, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.2% and following a rise of 0.3% in the preceding month.

The core producer price index, that excludes food and energy, dropped by 0.3% in July, worse than forecasts for a gain of 0.2% and following a rise of 0.4% a month earlier.

Core producer prices increased at an annualized rate of 0.7% last month, below expectations for 1.2% advance and after rising 1.3% in the preceding month.

Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. Furthermore, when producers pay more for goods, they are more likely to pass price increases on to the consumer, so PPI could be considered a leading indicator of inflation.

Source Investing.com

Economic Indicators. Italian GDP. Dutch GDP. Spanish CPI.

Economic Indicators

Italian GDP 0.0% vs. 0.2% forecast

Italy’s gross domestic product remained unchanged unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Istat said that Italian GDP remained unchanged at 0.0%, from 0.3% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Italian GDP to rise 0.2% last month.

Dutch GDP 2.3% vs. 1.2% forecast

Gross domestic product in the Netherlands rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Central Bureau voor de Statistiek said that Dutch GDP rose to 2.3%, from 1.5% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Dutch GDP to fall to 1.2% last month.

Spanish CPI -0.7% vs. -0.7% forecast

Consumer price inflation in Spain fell last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica said that Spanish CPI fell to -0.7%, from 0.5% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Spanish CPI to fall -0.7% last month.

Source by Investing.com

U.S. jobless claims fall as labor market firms

Economic Indicators

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength in early August that could help spur faster economy growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 for the week ended Aug. 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 2,000 fewer applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims declining to 265,000 in the latest week. A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data and no states had been estimated.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 75 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 1973.

With the labor market perceived to be either at or approaching full employment, there is probably little room for further declines in claims. A report on Wednesday showed layoffs fell to a near two-year low in June.

The robust labor market is boosting consumer spending and putting a floor under the economy after an inventory correction and lower oil prices restricted GDP growth to an average 1.0 percent annualized rate in the last three quarters.

The economy added a total of 547,000 jobs in June and July. The low number of claims suggests job growth momentum was retained in early August.

Thursday's claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 14,000 to 2.16 million in the week ended July 30. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims rose 500 to 2.14 million.

Source by Reuters

U.S. jobless claims drop less than expected

Economic Indicators

The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell slightly less than expected but remained in territory consistent with a firming labor market, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending August 6 decreased by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 from the previous week’s total of 267,000, which was revised from the initial read of 269,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to drop by 4,000 to 265,000 last week.

First-time jobless claims below the 300,000-level are usually associated with a firming labor market.

Continuing jobless claims in the week ended July 30 increased more than expected to 2.155 million from 2.141 million in the preceding week, which was revised from the original figure of 2.138 million.

Analysts had expected continuing claims to rise to 2.140 million.

Source by Investing.com

U.S. government posts $113 billion deficit in July

Economic Indicators

The U.S. government posted a $113 billion budget deficit in July, a 24 percent drop from the same month last year, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.

The government had a deficit of $149 billion in July 2015, according to Treasury's monthly budget statement.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $113 billion deficit for last month.

When accounting for calendar adjustments, July would have shown a $101 billion deficit compared with an adjusted $107 billion deficit in the same month in 2015.

The fiscal year-to-date deficit was $514 billion through July, up 10 percent from a $466 billion deficit at the same time last year.

On an adjusted basis, the fiscal year-to-date gap was $505 billion last month. That compared with $423 billion at the same time last year.

Receipts last month totaled $210 billion, a 7 percent decrease from July 2015, while outlays stood at $323 billion, a 14 percent fall from the same month a year ago.

Source by Reuters

U.S. Consumer Credit 12.32B vs. 17.00B forecast

Economic Indicators

U.S. consumer credit rose less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Federal Reserve said that U.S. Consumer Credit rose to a seasonally adjusted 12.32B, from 17.91B in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 18.56B.

Analysts had expected U.S. Consumer Credit to rise 17.00B last month.

Source by Investing.com

U.S. factory orders fall, business spending shows signs of stabilizing

Economic Indicators, Economy

New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in June on weak demand for transportation equipment and capital goods, but signs of stabilization in business spending offered some hope for struggling industries.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that new orders for manufactured goods declined 1.5 percent after a downwardly revised 1.2 percent decrease in May.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders dropping 1.8 percent in June after a previously reported 1.0 percent decline in May.

The department also said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 0.4 percent in June instead of the 0.2 percent gain reported last month. These so-called core capital goods are seen as a measure of business confidence and spending plans on equipment.

Core capital goods shipments, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the gross domestic product report, fell 0.2 percent in June. They were previously reported to have slipped 0.4 percent in June.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been pressured by the residual effects of a strong dollar and weak global demand, which have undermined exports of factory goods. Production has also been hurt by businesses placing fewer orders as they try to clear an inventory glut.

The sector has also been hurt by spending cuts by energy firms as they adjust to reduced profits from cheaper oil.

An outright drop in inventories and sustained weakness in business spending weighed on economic growth in the second quarter, with gross domestic product rising at a tepid 1.2 percent annualized rate after increasing at a 0.8 percent pace in the first three months of the year.

In June, orders for transportation equipment tumbled 10.5 percent, the biggest drop since August 2014. The largely reflected weak orders for aircraft. Orders for motor vehicles and parts increased 3.2 percent, the largest gain since July 2015.

Orders for machinery, which have been hurt by weak demand in the energy and agricultural sectors, rose 0.2 percent. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components gained 0.3 percent. Orders for computers and electronic products slumped 1.9 percent, the largest drop in more than a year.

Inventories of factory goods dipped 0.1 percent. Inventories have declined in 13 of the last 14 months. Shipments increased 0.7 percent. That lowered the inventories-to-shipments ratio to 1.35 from 1.36 in May.

Unfilled orders at factories decreased 0.8 percent after three straight months of increases.

Source by Reuters

U.S. factory growth slows more than expected in July: ISM

Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy's factory sector expanded at a slower pace in July, as manufacturers remained wary on the possible fallout from Britain's vote to exit the European Union in June, according to an industry report released on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 52.6 from 53.2 the month before. The reading was just below expectations of 53.0 from a Reuters poll of 50 economists.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

"It's a nice, well-balanced report. Comments were mixed leaning on the positive side," said Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee on a conference call with reporters.

The employment index fell to 49.4 from 50.4 a month earlier, marking the seventh time in the past eight months the index has registered a reading below 50. Expectations called for a reading of 50.3.

New orders dropped to 56.9 from 57.0. The prices paid index fell to 55.0 from 60.5, compared to expectations of 60.0.

“With Brexit, keeping (a) close eye on how this will impact our business,” a chemical producer told the group for its latest survey.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries ISM tracks for its monthly survey, 11 of them including petroleum and coal reported growth last month.

“Oil and gas industry sector continues to realign staff to reflect $40-$50/barrel oil. This price range is seen as the new normal for the foreseeable future,” a company official told the group.

U.S. oil futures (CLc1) fell almost 15 percent in July for their steepest one-month loss in a year due to concerns about global oversupply. They were last down over 2 percent at $40.66 a barrel in early U.S. trading on Monday.

Source Reuters

U.S. stocks edge forward as crude slumps 2%

Economic Indicators

Wall Street traded slightly higher on Monday despite weak economic data and the sell-off in crude, as investors chewed over remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

At 15:13GMT, or 11:13AM ET, the Dow 30 gained 30 points, or 0.16%, the S&P 500 rose 4 points, or 0.20%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded up 36 points or 0.69%.

New York Fed president William Dudley said at an international central bankers conference in Bali on Monday that investors are underestimating how many times policy makers in the world’s largest economy will raise interest rates.

He added that the Fed could hike rates before the November U.S. election if the economy and labor market improve quickly.

In a similar stance, Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan insisted that a September hike was still on the table, though he admitted that the U.S. central bank needed to see how things unfold.

“So it’s still too soon to jump to a conclusion,” Kaplan told Bloomberg in an interview and added that the Fed should be “very watchful for the next number of data releases to see what trend we’re on.”

The weak reading of U.S. second quarter gross domestic product last Friday pared market expectations for the Fed’s next move towards policy normalization.

The odds for a rate increase in September were just 12% on Monday with chances for a December hike at just 34.4%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

On the data front, the U.S. ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showedactivity in the sector fell more than expected in July, pulling back from a prior 16-month high.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said construction spending declined for a third straight month in June to its lowest level in a year.

Despite the weak data, the dollar held onto gains against the other major currencies, pulling back from a five-week low, on Monday.

In company news, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) announced it would buy the solar panel installer SolarCity in a deal valued at $2.6 billion.

Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) said it would pick up the GPS vehicle tracking firm Fleetmatics for about $2.4 billion.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell back towards April lows in North American trade on Monday, reapproaching bear market territory as signs of increasing production in the U.S. and rising output among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries weighed.

U.S. crude futures fell 2.12% to $40.72 a barrel by 15:17GMT or 11:17AM ET, whileBrent oil lost 2.07% to $42.63.

Source Investing.com