Forex - Weekly outlook: July 25 - 29

Forex

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rallied to a four-month high against a basket of major currencies on Friday, boosted by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, climbed to a session peak of 97.59 on Friday, a level not seen since March 10. It closed at 97.41, up 0.5% for the day and 1% higher on the week.

A recent string of better than expected U.S. data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.

Against the yen, the dollar tacked on 0.26% to settle at 106.13 by late Friday (USD/JPY). For the week the pair jumped 1.18%, the second straight weekly gain, amid growing expectations that policymakers in Japan are preparing a double-bazooka of fiscal and monetary easing in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, the euro fell to a one-month low of 1.0956 against the dollar on Friday (EUR/USD), before ending at 1.0976, down 0.45% for the day and 0.55% lower for the week, as reports surfaced of a mass shooting at a shopping mall in Munich.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at record lows as it seeks to revive growth and inflation. It left the door open to more policy stimulus in the coming months, highlighting great uncertainty and abundant risks to the economic outlook.

Elsewhere, the British pound tumbled sharply, with GBP/USD down 0.92% at 1.3110 late Friday, after the release of downbeat economic reports from the U.K. added to concerns over the outlook for Britain’s growth following the country’s decision to leave the European Union.

For the week, sterling lost 0.62% against the greenback, as investors are wagering on a rate cut and additional stimulus from the Bank of England in August.

Since voters in the U.K. spooked markets with their decision to leave the European Union on June 24, the pound has declined nearly 12% against the dollar.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement for fresh guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes over the next several months.

Elsewhere, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Friday, amid growing expectations for further stimulus.

Traders will also be looking ahead to data on U.S., U.K. and European second quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the health of the global economy in wake of Britain's shock vote last month to exit the European Union.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 25

Japan is to release data on the trade balance.

In Europe, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Tuesday, July 26

New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to release data on new home sales as well as a private sector report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, July 27

Australia is to report on consumer price inflation.

The U.K. is to release a first read on second quarter gross domestic product.

The U.S. is to publish a report on durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Later in the session, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, July 28

In the euro zone, Germany is to report on unemployment change. The country will also produce initial estimates on consumer inflation, while Spain is report on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 29

Japan is to release data on household spending, inflation, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is to hold its next monetary policy review. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Elsewhere, New Zealand is to publish data on business confidence, while Australia is to report on producer price inflation.

In Europe, Germany is to release data on retail sales, while Spain is to produce initial estimates on consumer price inflation and second quarter economic growth.

The euro area is also set to unveil its preliminary inflation estimate for July as well as flash GDP figures for the second quarter.

The U.K. is to release data on net lending and mortgage approvals.

Canada is to report on monthly GDP growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with an initial estimate of second quarter economic growth and revised data on Michigan consumer sentiment.