Forex - Weekly outlook: August 22 - 26

Forex

The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies on Friday, bouncing off a seven-week low as comments by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams reignited some hopes for a near-time rate hike.

Odds for a near-term rate hike came back in focus after Williams signaled support for a September rate increase in a Thursday afternoon speech.

"In the context of a strong domestic economy with good momentum, it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later," he said.

Williams's speech was just the latest piece of hawkish rhetoric from top Fed officials. Earlier this week, New York and Atlanta Fed presidents William Dudley and Dennis Lockhart both said a September rate hike may be on the table.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are pricing in a 12% chance of a rate hike by September. December odds were at around 46%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, tacked on 0.4% on Friday to close the week at 94.48, as investors began to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this year.

Despite Friday's gains, the greenback still ended with a weekly loss of 1.25% amid conflicting messages over the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting published earlier in the week showed committee members remained divided on the timing of the next rate hike, although there is general agreement that more data is needed before such a move.

Against the yen, the dollar inched up 0.3% to end at 100.21 by late trade. The greenback touched a low of 99.50 on Tuesday, the lowest level since the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union in late June. For the week, the pair lost 1.1%, the fourth straight weekly decline.

The euro, meanwhile, slipped 0.25% to settle at 1.1323, coming off the prior session's eight-week high of 1.1365. On the week, the single currency rose 1.5% against the dollar, the second weekly gain in a row.

Elsewhere, the pound settled at 1.3076 against the greenback, down 0.7% for the day but 1.2% higher for the week, amid easing concerns over post-Brexit growth prospects.

Sterling climbed to as high as 1.3184 after data showed that retail sales, employment and inflation all beat forecasts, suggesting that the British economy remained resilient in wake of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union.

Earlier in the week, sterling had threatened to test a 31-year low of $1.2798 set in July, dogged by worries that forthcoming U.K. data could provide the first proof of economic damage from the Brexit vote in June.

In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

In addition, investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in the coming months, with Friday’s revised second quarter growth data in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, market participants will be looking ahead to a second reading on U.K. growth data for further indications on how business investment and consumer spending performed in the run-up to the Brexit vote.

Traders will also be looking to Tuesday’s survey data on euro zone business activity for fresh signals on the health of the region's economy in wake of Britain's vote to exit the European Union earlier in the summer.

Elsewhere, Japanese inflation data will also be in focus as investors assess the need for further stimulus in the world's third's largest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 22

Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

Tuesday, August 23

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.

The euro zone is to release survey data looking at private sector activity.

The U.S. is to publish data on new home sales.

Wednesday, August 24

New Zealand is to report on the trade balance.

Australia is to release figures on completed construction work.

The U.S. is to produce a report on existing home sales as well as weekly data on oil supplies.

Thursday, August 25

The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims and durable goods orders.

The Jackson Hole annual meeting of top central bankers and economists due to take place in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday kicks off.

Friday, August 26

Japan is to release data on inflation.

The U.K. is to release revised data on second quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is also to produce revised data on second quarter growth, as well as a second look at consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak in Jackson Hole. Speculation is rife that she will use the speech to start the race for a rate hike as soon as September following a recent barrage of hawkish Fed speakers.

The annual Fed symposium has sometimes been used by Fed chairs to make important policy pronouncements.

Source by Investing.com